Q4 2023: Local Pulse Quarterly Newsletter

I can hardly believe the fall season is upon us! I hope you are starting to get some quality family fun in with fall festivities and other fun happenings. Our family spent last weekend at the pumpkin patch and checked out a super fun family fall festival in Hastings, FL (just 45 minutes south of Jax). If you are local I highly recommend Sykes Family Farm.

With us entering Q4 of 2024, I felt it would be the perfect time to catch up on what's happening in the Jacksonville real estate market, share some local updates and offer a few handy home maintenance tips.

Let’s dive in!

JACKSONVILLE MARKET IS SHOWING SIGNS OF STEADY GROWTH. HERE’S A FEW TRENDS TO KEEP MIND OF THIS FALL.

Inventory is Rising: The number of homes on the market is slowly increasing, giving buyers a little more breathing room while demand remains strong. The positive to listing your home right now is that current buyers are serious buyers (more on that later). In our specific area, although inventory has increased, prices have remained stable.

Mortgage Rates: Interest rates are fluctuating. We have seen some high 5%'s, and varying on factors mostly teetering in the 6%'s, which is still a relatively average interest rate. This has impacted affordability, which again means buyers that are out are serious. Jacksonville continues to be a hotspot for families, military relocations and investors alike due to its relative affordability compared to other metro areas in our state.

Average Home Price: The median home price in Jacksonville is holding steady around $389,945, which is a slight increase from last year. It’s still a great time for sellers, but buyers should also feel confident knowing that Jacksonville offers a lot of value for the money.

YEAR-END SELLERS: STAY ON THE MARKET

Many may think if your home has been on the market for a bit and you haven't gotten the traction or interest you wish, you may remove it from the market until the new year. Studies show to NOT do this.

Buyers right now, and in the coming 30-45 days, are some of the most serious. Despite the higher rates (although rates are the current lowest they have been in 24 months), if buyers are out shopping, they are serious about making decisions. Additionally, there are tax benefits for buyers closing before January 1st for the FL homestead opportunity. Tons of sellers will pull their homes from the market this time of year. This means by remaining on the market, when other sellers go off, you’ve increased the likelihood of buyers choosing your home.

While you may see slower showings and more days on market, these are all very normal. Days on market has recently landed between 1-3 months! I have had listings that I felt would go quickly, but have taken 2.5/3 months, and I have had listings go the first weekend on the market, with solid terms from the seller that I felt would sit for at least 3-5 weeks. There really is no rhyme or reason beyond certain areas, but even in these "hot pockets" some homes sit.

I am encouraging all sellers to go in with the mindset your home will be active for anywhere between 1-3 months, and consider it a huge win if it is under this. This is the reality of the current market and its varying the factors we’ve discussed. With days on market up 17% since this time last year, as well as new listings (up by 22%) and active inventory (up 74%), the data tells us we are entering a more stable market for both buyers and sellers.

Northeast Florida is sitting at 5 months of supply for total inventory. This is the highest we have seen since 2020. Research shows "6 months of supply" equates to a stable market. So, technically, NE Florida is still a sellers market. However, with such an increase in inventory, it does seem buyers have more negotiation power than they have for many years.

Sellers, in this market, have to be willing to negotiate. To maximize your value out of your home, you have to be sure you are offering a solid product: no long-term aging systems, no deferred maintenance, a home that has been maintained, etc. If these items are not complete, you cannot expect to receive top dollar.

RENTAL OWNERS, THIS ONE’S FOR YOU

For those who own rental properties, we are seeing rental rates take a slight dip in rental prices due to increased inventory heavily on the rental side.

We have almost 5x the amount of rental homes currently on the market than we have ever had in a long, long time in NE Florida. The reason behind this is several factors.

First, during the craziness of the market 2020-2021, 30% of our homes in Jacksonville and surrounding areas were purchased by hedge-fund investors. These are large corporations that were throwing competitive cash offers out at sellers. At the time, many sellers were taking those offers versus selling to an actual family. These corporations then re-entered the homes into the rental market.

Many sellers at the time had their homes rented out, but many saw either a huge return could be made or maybe they never had the interest to be a landlord. However, based on when they bought, these owners could not sell, and when prices rose so quickly during this time, they were able to get out. We lost tons of rentals initially, which also squeezed our rental market beginning in 2021 and drove rental prices up. However, since those homes have come back into play on the rental side through these corporations, it is pushing more homes back for rent.

Second, you have people who did buy during this time, and have locked in low rates that we likely may never see again, so they are clinging to those homes and keeping them for intentional investments.

Third, you then have people who have purchased the last two years with slightly higher interest rates, and with no huge price increases across the board here in NE FL, they financially cannot sell and have to rent.

These three LARGE groups of people pushing homes out to our rental market, therefore giving us more homes on the rental market than we have had in a long time and causing the rental market to almost be over-saturated. Renters, like buyers, have more options than ever before and are often selecting homes based on affordability due to other economic factors.

So, if you are a landlord don't be shocked if your rent rates dip slightly than they have in the last few years, it's not your home, its the market.

FALL HOME MAINTENANCE TIPS

As the temperatures cool, it's a great time to prep your home for the fall and winter months. Here are some quick tips to get your home ready:

CLEAN OUT GUTTERS: As the leaves fall, keep in mind this can clog gutters. Perhaps schedule out for a gutter cleaning toward the end of the season to ensure no damage or issues arise

SERVICE HVAC: I am certain, especially here in Florida, your AC has been cranking all summer long! Before we head into some cooler months, and winter, be sure to have the system routinely maintained to ensure the heat aspect is working just fine.

SEAL WINDOWS + DOORS: now is a great time to check all doors and windows for good seals. Whether it's caulking, or weatherstripping. This will help with the insulation of your home in cooler months.

FIREPLACE: If you have a fireplace, you likely have not used it since last season. It is highly recommended to get this professionally inspected before using again.

WHAT CAN WE DO FOR YOU?

As always, we're here to be your NE Florida Real Estate Expert. Whether you are looking to sell, buy (more investment homes, or your own primary), or have real estate related questions, I am always here for you!

Don’t forget, we rebate back 25% of our gross commission to our community heroes. Military Members, Medical workers, first responders, teachers, and clergy. We’ve given back over $500k since our inception.

Overview of the Home-Buying Process

Are you thinking this is the year you want to become a homeowner? If so, we would love to help you! 

Many find the home-buying process overwhelming, which leaves often leaves potential buyers stuck waiting, continuing to rent, building wealth for others and never actually pulling the trigger.

Many times, people start the home search only to stop because they feel they cannot find the “perfect home.” Newsflash: the perfect home does not exist unless you likely complete a true custom-home build. Even then, I hear stories all the time of homeowners changing their mind on desires, functionality, etc. once the “perfect custom” home is complete.

As a first-time home buyer, it is so crucial to remember your first home is not your forever home! That first home should be the first stepping stone to help you build wealth and equity, which can then fuel your next purchase, which can often be closer to your “dream home.”

Now, let’s dive into what the home-buying process looks like.

Pre-Approval

First up, we always recommend sitting down with our team to work through this cycle and answer questions before getting too far down the process. 

Next up, is the pre-approval process. Here, we provide you with some recommendations on our local lenders that we advise you to contact with to determine your budget and what you are willing and able to spend on a new home. This gives you the outline of the funds needed to actually make the purchase, and what your monthly payment may look like.

The sales price drives all of this, so you cannot start looking at homes until you know the range of a sales price you would be able to spend. We recommend this step in the very beginning because sometimes once people review the numbers, they need more time to prepare and set up a game plan to get there.

Home Search

Once you have obtained a pre-approval letter from your lender the true fun begins! This is when we will begin house hunting: searching online, visiting homes and looking to see what you do and don’t like in a property in our best effort to match you with the right one!

Making The Offer

Once we have found the right home, we begin the offer process. The formal offer entails the sales price you are presenting to the home seller, your closing time line, the inspection period length, loan approval length and a few other facets that we’ll walk through at time of an offer (are you asking for a seller credit, closing cost assistance, etc.).

A majority of the terms of the offer are negotiable. However, it’s common the seller may counter back by making slight changes that may better fit their needs or desires. A seller counter should not discourage because real estate is a team sport, and it’s ultimately finding a middle ground that works for both parties.

Up-Front Costs

One question I get often from buyers is, “What are the up front, out-of-pocket expenses?”

• Earnest Money: Also referred to as binder, can be around 1% or less of the sales price. For examples, if you’re buying a $300,000 home, expect to put down about $3,000 up front. This can sometimes be broken up by a portion up front and then another portion after the inspection. This money comes back to you, and goes toward your costs due at the closing table. 

• Inspection Costs: This is directly paid to the vendor whom you choose for the home inspection, and can be paid via credit card. Most inspections cost about $300 - $600 varying on home size and what you’re having inspected. 

• Appraisal: This varies by lender and their protocol. Sometimes, the lender will take your credit card when you complete your loan application, or sometimes it is added into your closing costs at the end. Either way, on average appraisals are between $400 - $600.

• Additional: Beyond the three above, you will just have your standard closing costs and down payment. Closing costs typically run buyers around 2% of the sales price of the home, and then the downpayment varies on your loan type. 

Under Contract

Once you’ve found the one, have submitted your offer and reached terms with the seller, you’re now are officially under contract! You have submitted your earnest money, and now you will get to work on the home inspection process.

You will select the inspector, and they will complete a thorough check on the home of all facets-foundation, roof, electrical, plumbing, wear and tear, and also point out ongoing maintenance recommendations, etc. Once you receive the report back, you will be able to review with your agent, and compile a list (if any) of repairs you would like the seller to fix. This is also negotiable, and sometimes sellers will do some, all or none of the repairs you have asked for; or sometimes they may offer a credit instead. You will work through the potential repair request with the seller and once you have reached a middle ground, solidify the requests. 

The seller will work on the repairs while your loan is being underwritten. You would have submitted your documents to the lender the first week of being under contract. During this time, the lender may come back and ask for updated documents, which is common and review the appraisal report. Once this is done, you should receive loan approval. Once you have loan approval, the process is nearly done! 

The Final Steps

Finally, you’ll want to complete a final walk through of the home to ensure the repairs have been made by the seller, also collecting receipts, etc. from anything so you have those on file for the future.

Then, the lender will give you an official clear to close with the title company, typically paid for by the seller. The lender will compile all the documents you need to sign off for your loan and title, and you will schedule your closing date! 

Then, the day of closing belongs to you, woohoo! And on this day you are a new homeowner :) 

2023 Recap: The Jordan Group

Well, I can hardly believe it is the first week of March, and I am just getting around to publishing our 2023 year in review post. OOPS! Life sure is busy with two little ones, and running two businesses, and all the other things in between.

For those of you who don’t know, Michael and I run The Jordan Group, which is all things real estate. Then, then we also own a second company, Rejuvenating Jax, which is all things renovation, home projects, etc. I mainly run and oversee The Jordan Group, and Michael does the same for Rejuvenating Jax, but we are both very involved with each side, and it's SO fun! 

Last year did prove to be challenging in the real estate landscape for various factors. Despite those obstacles, we are still so grateful to have been blessed to serve 34 families, closing out $16 million in sold volume, topping out again in the top 500 of Real Estate Agents in all of Northeast Florida (of which we have over 12,000 agents, so that is insane)!

We are so grateful to be here and have met those accomplishments, so thank you for those who continue to allow us to be here. To the families that continue to trust us, we do not take our responsibility lightly to guide you through such a valuable and huge decision. 

In 2023, we also awarded our Hero families more than $97,000! Remember, when you are a military member, medical professional, teacher, clergy, or first responder, we rebate you back 25% of our commission when you buy or sell with us.

Looking ahead, we are excited to help our next wave of families. We would love to serve you no matter your current season of real estate needs (below is just a starting list). Please reach out, we look forward to connecting!

• If you are on the fence

• If you to buy your first home, your second home or beyond

• If you want to kick start your investment property portfolio or expand it

• If you need to upsize or downsize

2024 Real Estate Market Predictions: Why You Should Sell Now

Why 2024 Could Be A Dominate Year in Real Estate

The last three years, to say the least, things have been wild in the real estate market. From a fairly stable market pre-2020, we moved to see insane equity gains for owners due to manipulated low interest rates, which triggered millions of people to purchase and allowed them to afford more than they had ever been able to before.

More recently, when interest rates started rising, buyers lost buying power and many stepped away from the thought of home buying because of affordability. As the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, homes began to sit on the market longer. With less and less buyers making transactions, sellers had to offer sweet deals to get their home sold (ie; concessions like closing costs, rate buy downs, etc).

2024 has started with continued rate decreases by the Federal Reserve, which means buyers are jumping back in and are quickly gaining back buying power. With this news and the projection of rates continuing to drop, I believe we are in for a strong market this year.

2024 Market Headwinds

Buyers who backed off last year when rates hit 7% to 8%, are now making jumps back into the market with interest rates teetering between 5% to 6%. (Remember: This is a healthy interest rate!)

We also have families who bought during the 2020-2021 market and have realized their home does not fit them well: they need more space, less space or simply the functionality is just not there. However, these families feel stuck because of a low interest rate (2% to 3%). As interest rates creep back to normal (5% to 6% is market average), these homeowners may decide to take the plunge and move. This provides two things for the housing market: 1) more homes to choose from for buyers as owners list their homes and 2) more buyers in general in the market.

In addition to the millions of young generational buyers entering the home buying scene, there are also millions of people who will buy and sell each year, regardless of market, due to situational factors (ie; baby boomers downsizing, divorce situations, family deaths and inheritance of properties, etc).

2024 Predictions

For sellers in 2024, I believe you will see less time on market than in 2023, and I believe offers will be stronger. Stronger offers means you will likely net more money on your sale, too. 

For buyers, home prices are staying fairly level for now. However, this could change as more buyers continue to enter the market, thus creating more competition. There are still lots of negotiations happening in your favor as buyers right now. There are great incentives with home buying programs as well for those who may need additional assistance. 

All in all, if you have been waiting to sell, this could be the year to cash out on that equity as we will likely need more inventory with the millions of buyers likely re-entering the home buying scene this year alongside decreased rates. The market is heating up, and this could be your chance!

Q4 2023: Local Pulse Quarterly Newsletter

A NOTE FROM BAILEY

I can hardly believe we are in the thick of the holiday season!

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving with loved ones.

I wanted to send a year-end newsletter updating everyone on the Jacksonville market, our city, followed by some local news and trends as well as a brief snapshot of what 2024 may look like as projected by economists, data, and the market trends.

2023: THE JORDAN GROUP REVIEW

A huge thank you to those who have trusted me this year as your Realtor, or your Property Manager (or both!).

I value each of you greatly, and I am happy to report I am in the top 5% of agents here in Northeast Florida, closing out just shy of $16 million in production this year with almost 35 homes sold.

2023: REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW

This year was definitely different from the last several years of real estate.

Home sales were down 14% compared to this time last year given higher interest rates. Higher rates have priced some buyers out of the market and significantly changed their buying power coupled with overall inflation leading to how much home prices rose. However, pending sales are actually up 6.4%, which indicates an increase of inventory. Still, even with nearly triple the supply we had compared during 2021 to early 2022, are only sitting at 3.2 months of supply in all of Northeast Florida. Remember: a "stable" market is 6 months!

What exactly does this all mean? Let me break it down.

• Sellers: Home prices remain strong, but have also been leveling out. With less buyers in the market due to higher prices + rates, demand naturally slows. When demand slows, inventory sits a little longer and sometimes incentives are given. Sellers have to remain patient in this market. Pricing is key, and how you position yourself going onto the market is VITAL (to include condition, accessibility, pricing, and location). Sellers are offering credits and concessions, which have not been a condition in our market since about 2019. We also still need inventory! Although it’s increased, options are limited. If you have been considering selling or are ready to cash out on your equity, this may be the market (especially in the next 12 months).

• Landlords: Many homeowners are electing to hold their homes given the lower rates they secured, so we’re seeing thousands more rentals come on the market. This has caused rental’s increased time on market and renter’s options. It’s important for landlords to remain competitive with good home condition, pricing, etc. In the last three years, because home prices rose so much, many landlords cashed out on their equity, pulling rentals from the market. Now the opposite is happening: with an influx of options, rental rates are also coming down.

BAILEY’S OPINION: WHAT’S AHEAD FOR 2024?

As of yesterday, we’re seeing rates consistently remain in the 6% range for FHA, VA buyers and Conventional.

I believe, as we approach an election year, rates will continue to drop and stay somewhere between 5-6%. When this happens, I believe we’re going to have a huge influx of buyers in the market because we have so much pent up demand. Why you ask?

Everyone who has been on the fence about buying with a 7-8%+ rate, is going to jump in a fear of rates climbing again. With these rates, buyers can also "buy down" their rates to even in the 4% range, which is an incredible rate!

We have millennials and Gen Z generations that have entered the home buying scene.

Third, we have current homeowners who got into homes during the COVID craze and have felt stuck in their non-forever homes because of their 2-3% rate. When they feel ready to purchase again with a 4-6% rate versus 7-8%, they will list their home (hello inventory) and re-buy.

It is estimated that between these three brackets of people, there are millions of people waiting to make a move. Meaning, if they all flood the market in 2024, sellers will see competitive offers again, we will desperately need more homes to sell and closed home sales will drastically shoot up.

JACKSONVILLE MARKET NEWS

Our city is continuing to see exponential growth! There’s lots of construction and plans for downtown are underway including the Four Seasons, new parks and dining options.

New retail options are continuing to appear in all areas of our city, expansion of roads, highways and several new Master Planned Communities are on the horizon. Between our education systems, the Jaxport Terminal, strong military presence, and healthcare options- Jacksonville remains a draw for many and our affordability is sure to impress.

IN CLOSING

I am excited to announce I have been working on more education videos for both buyers and sellers. I would love for you to click and subscribe for my Youtube channel. I hope you find these educational!

Wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Prosperous New Year!

Curious What Your Home Is Worth? CLICK HERE

What Can We Do For You?

As always, we're here to be your NE Florida Real Estate Expert + Go To Girl. Whether you are looking to sell, buy (more investment homes, or your own primary), or have real estate related questions, I am always here for you!

Don’t forget, we rebate back 25% of our gross commission to our community heroes. Military Members, Medical workers, first responders, teachers, and clergy. We’ve given back over $500k since our inception.