Q4 2023: Local Pulse Quarterly Newsletter

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A NOTE FROM BAILEY

I can hardly believe we are in the thick of the holiday season!

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving with loved ones.

I wanted to send a year-end newsletter updating everyone on the Jacksonville market, our city, followed by some local news and trends as well as a brief snapshot of what 2024 may look like as projected by economists, data, and the market trends.


2023: THE JORDAN GROUP REVIEW

A huge thank you to those who have trusted me this year as your Realtor, or your Property Manager (or both!).

I value each of you greatly, and I am happy to report I am in the top 5% of agents here in Northeast Florida, closing out just shy of $16 million in production this year with almost 35 homes sold.


2023: REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW

This year was definitely different from the last several years of real estate.

Home sales were down 14% compared to this time last year given higher interest rates. Higher rates have priced some buyers out of the market and significantly changed their buying power coupled with overall inflation leading to how much home prices rose. However, pending sales are actually up 6.4%, which indicates an increase of inventory. Still, even with nearly triple the supply we had compared during 2021 to early 2022, are only sitting at 3.2 months of supply in all of Northeast Florida. Remember: a "stable" market is 6 months!

What exactly does this all mean? Let me break it down.

  • Sellers: Home prices remain strong, but have also been leveling out. With less buyers in the market due to higher prices + rates, demand naturally slows. When demand slows, inventory sits a little longer and sometimes incentives are given. Sellers have to remain patient in this market. Pricing is key, and how you position yourself going onto the market is VITAL (to include condition, accessibility, pricing, and location). Sellers are offering credits and concessions, which have not been a condition in our market since about 2019. We also still need inventory! Although it’s increased, options are limited. If you have been considering selling or are ready to cash out on your equity, this may be the market (especially in the next 12 months).

  • Landlords: Many homeowners are electing to hold their homes given the lower rates they secured, so we’re seeing thousands more rentals come on the market. This has caused rental’s increased time on market and renter’s options. It’s important for landlords to remain competitive with good home condition, pricing, etc. In the last three years, because home prices rose so much, many landlords cashed out on their equity, pulling rentals from the market. Now the opposite is happening: with an influx of options, rental rates are also coming down.


BAILEY’S OPINION: WHAT’S AHEAD FOR 2024?

As of yesterday, we’re seeing rates consistently remain in the 6% range for FHA, VA buyers and Conventional.

I believe, as we approach an election year, rates will continue to drop and stay somewhere between 5-6%. When this happens, I believe we’re going to have a huge influx of buyers in the market because we have so much pent up demand. Why you ask?

Everyone who has been on the fence about buying with a 7-8%+ rate, is going to jump in a fear of rates climbing again. With these rates, buyers can also "buy down" their rates to even in the 4% range, which is an incredible rate!

We have millennials and Gen Z generations that have entered the home buying scene.

Third, we have current homeowners who got into homes during the COVID craze and have felt stuck in their non-forever homes because of their 2-3% rate. When they feel ready to purchase again with a 4-6% rate versus 7-8%, they will list their home (hello inventory) and re-buy.

It is estimated that between these three brackets of people, there are millions of people waiting to make a move. Meaning, if they all flood the market in 2024, sellers will see competitive offers again, we will desperately need more homes to sell and closed home sales will drastically shoot up.


JACKSONVILLE MARKET NEWS

Our city is continuing to see exponential growth! There’s lots of construction and plans for downtown are underway including the Four Seasons, new parks and dining options.

New retail options are continuing to appear in all areas of our city, expansion of roads, highways and several new Master Planned Communities are on the horizon. Between our education systems, the Jaxport Terminal, strong military presence, and healthcare options- Jacksonville remains a draw for many and our affordability is sure to impress.


IN CLOSING

I am excited to announce I have been working on more education videos for both buyers and sellers. I would love for you to click and subscribe for my Youtube channel. I hope you find these educational!

Wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Prosperous New Year!


Curious What Your Home Is Worth? CLICK HERE


What Can We Do For You?

As always, we're here to be your NE Florida Real Estate Expert + Go To Girl. Whether you are looking to sell, buy (more investment homes, or your own primary), or have real estate related questions, I am always here for you!

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